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Brazil: International Reserves Dec.2011
Brazil Federal Government: Taxes Collection Growth
Brazil: Iron Ore Exports
Brazil: Gross Public Debt Oct.2011
Brazil: Current Account Nov.2011
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Últimas
Brazil: Credit Operations in the Financial System to Individuals
Brazil: Exchange Rate 2011
Brazil: Imports of Consumer Goods Rose Sharply in the Last Decade
Brazil: Inflation in 2011
Brazil: Unemployment Rate November 2011
Brazil: Credit Operations in the Financial System to Individuals
The total of credit operations in the financial system to individuals reached USD 644 billion in November, up 0.9% on the month of October and an increase of 17.2% over the same month last year. In relation to GDP, the volume of loans to individuals was 15.2%, repeating the same index in October, as we can see in the chart below. After the rapid growth of credit / GDP ratio between 2003 and 2010, the data shows a flat behaviour in the last 2 years.
Brazil: Exchange Rate 2011
In 2011, the dollar appreciated 12.6% against the Brazilian Real. As we can see from the chart below, this movement had two distinct periods. In the first eight months of the year, the dollar was in the process of fall in relation to the BRL, and reached its lowest point in July, with cumulative drop of 8% in the year. However, a number of factors contributed to change the course of the exchange rate. Among these measures is the introduction of taxes on foreign exchange derivatives market, which
Brazil: Imports of Consumer Goods Rose Sharply in the Last Decade
Over the last 10 years, the Brazilian domestic demand has been stimulated by measures such as increase in real wages, government programs of income distribution, credit expansion and mainly, the appreciation of exchange rate. The unemployment rate is very low, which has pushed wages, which are also at record levels. See also: Credit Operations Industrial Production However, the expansion of supply has not kept pace with demand. Industrial production shows stability, and what we see is that this
Brazil: Inflation in 2011
The inflation rate measured by the IPCA reached 6.5% in 2011, with a high compared to the previous year, when it reached 5.9%, as we can see in the chart below. Several factors explain the rise in the index. Among them, we can mention the increase in international commodity prices and the pressure of the strong level of activity, especially in services prices. We can divide the policy to combat inflation in two stages. In the first semester, the Central Bank raised interest rates and also took s
Brazil: Unemployment Rate November 2011
The unemployment rate, measured by the IBGE, reached 5.2% in November, and is the lowest of the series that began in 2002, as we see in the chart below. ? Source: IBGE ?.
Brazil: Interest Rate (Selic) - Meeting of 30.Nov
The Brazilian "FOMC" announced today the new basic interest rate (Selic). The Selic rate dropped from 11.5% to 11%, the third consecutive fall. The Central Bank has signaled that the process of falling interest rates would be "moderate", and therefore, the rate was in line with the market forecast. However, the worsening in international crisis and the slowdown of domestic activity is leading the market to predict further falls in interest rates.
Brazil Inflation: Monitored and Non Monitored Prices
Inflation in Brazil, measured by the IPCA, reached 6.64% in the last 12 months. The behavior of prices of products monitored, which is about one-third of the index, had performance lower than the overall index in the recent past, but in recent months, which we note is that there is a convergence of prices of controlled items to the average inflation. Source: IBGE.
Brazil: Current Account Nov.2011
Brazil had a current account deficit of USD 6.8 billion in October and in the last 12 months, the deficit was USD 49.3 billion, representing 2% of GDP. The chart below shows the evolution of current account balance to GDP in a recent period. The deficit in current account have been financed by inflows of foreign direct investment, which reached USD 60 billion accumulated in 2011. Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Brazil: Gross Public Debt Oct.2011
Brazil's public debt reached 55.4% of GDP in October 2011. The domestic public debt accounted for 53% of GDP and external debt, 2.37%. As we can see in the chart below, the trend of gross debt to GDP is flat, with few variations over the recent period. Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Brazil: Iron Ore Exports
Exports of iron ore reached USD 3.7 billion in November, with a slight drop of 3.4% compared to October, but an increase of 36% compared to November 2010. Over the past 12 months, exports of iron ore reached the incredible mark of USD 41.6 billion, and is currently the main product of Brazilian exports. The movement in the price of iron ore began in 2003. Before this, the average value of exports was around $ 2.6 billion a year. As we can see from the chart below, the iron ore export revenues we
Brazil Federal Government: Taxes Collection Growth
Dados mais recentes sobre a arrecadação federal de impostosl
Brazil: Trade Balance Nov.2011
The trade balance surplus reached USD 583 million in November, down 75% from the previous month but an increase of 87.5% over the same month last year. The month of November has a trade surplus lower than other months of the year, as we can see from the chart below. In 2011 up to November, exports accumulated $ 234 billion and imports USD 208 billion, with a surplus of USD 26 billion. Source: MDIC.
Brazil: Industrial Production in October 2011
IBGE reported today the industrial production statistics for October. In October, industrial production fell by 0.6% compared to September and decreased 2.2% compared to October of last year, as we see in the graphic below. The industrial production is still below the pre-crisis level in 2008. This poor performance is mainly explained by the appreciation of Brazilian real against the dollar, which has favored the entrance of imported goods in detriment of domestic production.
Brazil: External Debt I
The relationship between the volume of international reserves and external debt is above 100%. This ratio was very low during the 80's, when Brazil had problems with its external debt. From the 90's, and especially the last 10 years, the volume of international reserves rose sharply, and today is higher than the value of external debt, as we see in the chart below. Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Brazil: External Debt II
Currently, the gross external debt of Brazil is close to USD 300 billion. However, due to the high volume of international reserves, Brazil is a net creditor in USD 65 billion, as we see in the chart below. As we saw in the post of the day 03.Dec.2011 , the volume of international reserves is higher than the gross debt, however, gross debt has been increasing, especially in the last five years, when it rose about USD 100 billion. ? Source: Central Bank of Brazil ?.
Brazil: Activity Level - October 2011
The Central Bank of Brazil announced today the IBC-Br for October. The IBC-Br is an indicator of economic activity, calculated from figures of the industry, services and agriculture, and serves as a proxy for GDP performance in Brazil. In October, the IBC-br fell 0.32% compared to September, and rose 0.35% compared to October from the year before.. These data confirms that economic activity in Brazil is in a slow down process. The chart below shows the recent evolution of the IBC-Br.
Brazil: Expenses with Interest Rate on Public Debt
For several years Brazil has maintained one of the highest interest rates in the world. This interest rate has a very high cost to Brazilian Treasury. Over the last 12 months ending in October, the payment of interest had a cost of 5.87% of GDP, despite the downward trend. The expenses with interest was almost 10% in 2003, as we see in the chart below. ? Source: Central Bank of Brazil ?.
Brazil: Net External Liabilities - October 2011
The stock of foreign direct investment in Brazil, according to Central Bank data (most recent data of international investment position is October.2011) is USD 524 billion. The total investment in portfolio is USD 597 billion, of which USD 354 billion in equity securities and USD 242 billion in debt securities. The total of loans is USD 176 billion and other liabilities, USD 22 billion. Thus, Brazil's gross external liability is USD 1.3 trillion.
Brazil: GDP 3rd Quarter 2011
The Brazilian GDP was flat in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter. On the demand side, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), household and government expenditure had negative contribution, being offset by the positive contribution of the external sector. Regarding the third quarter of 2010, growth was 2.1%, and household consumption and GFCF rose by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. In the chart below, we can see how the main accounts of the Brazilian GDP during recent period.
Brazil: Commodities Prices and Internacional Crisis
The Brazilian commodities index was released today. This index expresses the commodities prices in BRL more relevant to the dynamics of inflation in Brazil. In November, this index fell 1.7% compared to October and increased 6.1% compared to November 2010. If we consider the average rate in 2011, the index is 24.6% higher than the average of 2010. The chart below also shows the index of terms of trade of Brazilian foreign trade, which also are at high levels.
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